As I noted in my previous post I’m getting back into using Tableau — the top notch data analysis and business intelligence tool.
I’ve refined my mapping skills a bit more on my favorite topic — the 2016 Presidential election. Here’s a narrative I’d like to present piece by piece.
First, we have our traditional look at the map of the election by county. The red and blue represent the traditional parties (GOP and DEMs respectively). The numbers indicate the margin of victory. (For convenience I did this as a difference from the Dem vote — so a -55% in Elko County, NV means that the GOP won that vote by 55 points. A “48%” notation in the lower left shows L.A. county which went decisively to Hillary.)
The size of the font notes the larger population of that county.
I’m showing this thread to demonstrate the granularity of election and trends moving in a specific direction. Right now the map is swimming in geographic red but the picture become clearer as we add more scale to the color.
Here’s the same map and election but in 4 colors — adding light red and light blue:
The point of this exercise is to identify counties where the next battles might be fought for the 2018 midterms and the 2020 election. Let’s narrow the margin of difference between the 2 parties to 10% points.
Let’s hover over a county and see the specifics. Back to California in deep blue territory you can see margin of difference is about 3%.
Now if I were a political consultant I wouldn’t recommend spending any GOP money in these territories so let’s take a look at another county in tight electoral state.
Look at all the counties in play in Colorado where Secretary Clinton beat Trump by 136K votes. So many counties in play with lots of votes to swing one way or another. This should be an interesting fight.
You can see the number of counties within 10 points in the crucial states of Michigan and Wisconsin which put Trump over the top. Looks to be a big battleground going forward:
For a larger picture let’s look at the critical “blue curtain” for the Democrats in 2008’s race between President Obama and Senator McCain in our 4 color chart. Some deep blues happening against the GOP here:
Fast forward 8 years and the 4-color chart is dramatically different:
Shades of red creep across the entire area. As we’ve noted elsewhere Democrats have been losing elections for a long time.
Here you go… play around with the dynamic Tableau worksheet for your enjoyment. See if you can find the specific targets your team needs to go after.
Or you can try your hand at some more complicated items like machine learning to understand the election.